Новая жизнь «коммуналки»: во втором полугодии россияне заплатят больше

Отмена моратория на штрафы и пени оставит потребителей без воды и тепла

Во второй половине 2020-го в сфере ЖКХ произойдут серьезные изменения. Если потребители думали, что июльская индексация тарифов — самое страшное, что могло случиться с ними в коммунальной сфере в этом году, то они заблуждались. Перед жильцами замаячила куда более страшная перспектива: установка «умных» счетчиков энергии, разумеется, за их счет, а также отмена моратория на начисление штрафов за неуплату «коммуналки». К концу года вновь вернутся положения, по которым будет можно отключать должникам услуги и взимать деньги, которых у большинства граждан попросту нет из-за падения доходов. В перспективе мы увидим следующее: ресурсники в принудительном порядке будут отрубать воду и тепло у неплательщиков, что ни к чему хорошему не приведет.

«МК» собрал воедино те новации, которые ждут население в жилищно-коммунальной сфере до конца текущего года, и с помощью экспертов проанализировал их.

Новая жизнь «коммуналки»: во втором полугодии россияне заплатят больше

фото: АГН «Москва»

Пандемию заложили в тарифы

В июле тарифы ЖКХ все-таки проиндексировали, несмотря на то что денег у населения, мягко говоря, больше не стало. Удивляться этому не приходится: одна из немногих сфер, где планы правительства строго выполняются, независимо от обстоятельств, — это повышение стоимости коммунальных услуг. Можно корректировать из-за коронавируса, например, программы строительства или переносить на 6 лет реализацию нацпроектов, но увеличение цен на необходимые ресурсы для потребителей с 1 июля прошло строго по расписанию. Хотя ряд депутатов и чиновников требовали отказаться от подобного шага, да и ряд ведомств — например, Федеральная антимонопольная служба — выступали против. Но тарифы преспокойно подняли — на 4% в среднем по стране и ни процентом ниже, как и было заранее намечено. И неважно, что общая инфляция за июнь составила 3,2% год к году, а за первое полугодие — 2,8%, по данным Росстата. Новые тарифы «дальновидно» работают на опережение, на перспективу. К слову, они не просто превышают темп инфляции на 40%. Само их увеличение во многом формирует усиление роста цен.

Наталья Чернышева, директор «Организации народного контроля»:

«Повышение тарифов с июля 2020 года вместо моратория, на который все надеялись до последнего, еще сильнее ударит по карманам граждан и никак не будет способствовать собираемости платежей. Тарифы выросли в среднем на 4%, а собираемость может упасть на 15–20%. Таким образом, повышение тарифов, на котором настаивали ресурсоснабжающие компании, никак не покроет снижение общих платежей, ситуация только ухудшится. Особенно неприятно заметить в платежках возвращение ранее временно отмененных взносов на капремонт в некоторых регионах. Это тоже заставит многих жильцов отложить платежи до лучших времен, учитывая отсутствие санкций за просрочку».

Алексей Кричевский, эксперт Академии управления финансами и инвестициями:

«Ситуация с коммунальными платежами останется очень напряженной. Отсутствие источников доходов у людей на протяжении нескольких месяцев не могло не отразиться на финансовой дисциплине, и проблема жилищников в том, что в списке первоочередных платежей они идут не первыми, а только после долгов разнообразным кредитным организациям — банкам, МФО. С индексацией тарифов пропорционально вырастет и количество долгов. Собираемость платежей за пандемию снизилась на четверть, а в ряде регионов и на 35–40%, поэтому общий долг в полтора триллиона рублей, накопленный физическими и юридическими лицами, будет только расти и может дойти до двух триллионов к концу года, особенно после отмены моратория на пени и окончания кредитных каникул. Логичным решением было отменить июльскую индексацию тарифов и распределить ее между следующими повышениями цен, но сделано этого не было».

«Умные» счетчики ограбят потребителей

С 1 июля ресурсоснабжающие компании должны устанавливать потребителям «умные» счетчики за свой счет (раньше это производилось за счет потребителя). Замене подлежат устаревшие приборы, которые допускают расхождения в показаниях потребления, — это самые старые счетчики, в которых нельзя предусмотреть тариф «день-ночь» или другие тарифы. Организации свои затраты по установке счетчиков включат в тариф на электроэнергию. Цена одного прибора может достигать 10 тыс. рублей.

Наталья Чернышева, директор «Организации народного контроля»:

«Переход на «умные» счетчики с разделением тарифов на дневные и ночные должен в конечном итоге привести к экономии для тех потребителей, у кого раньше был однотарифный счетчик. Даже с учетом того, что стоимость замены счетчиков и их обслуживания будет включена в тариф, его повышение должно быть компенсировано уменьшением затрат, если ресурс использовали ночью. Если, например, люди будут откладывать включение стиральных и посудомоечных машин на время после заката, экономия по счетам на электроэнергию может составить около 15%. Однако неясно, как замена счетчиков на «интеллектуальные» может помочь тем, кто уже сейчас установил у себя многотарифные счетчики и научился ими правильно пользоваться. Скорее всего, для них эта замена обернется только повышением тарифа. Но хочется надеяться, что в любом случае это повышение будет не более 0,5%».

Евгений Блех, замдиректора центра управления ЖКХ Института отраслевого менеджмента РАНХиГС:

«Переход на «умные» счетчики не должен повлиять на стоимость электроэнергии. Доход от «умных» счетчиков получают поставщики, и они должны устанавливать их за свой счет. Перекладывать эти затраты на потребителей недопустимо. Даже при высокой задолженности отключать подачу ресурсов населению никто не будет, впереди зима».

Александр Гурылёв, председатель Совета директоров консалтинговой компании «Инноватика»:

«Естественно, все приборы, которые устанавливаются в жилом доме, устанавливаются за счет потребителей. Будет ли эта установка требовать оплаты сразу или в рассрочку — зависит от условий, которые предлагает управляющая компания или ресурсоснабжающая организация. Рекомендация жителям — внимательно смотреть на те предложения, которые поступают, потому как привычное доверие к управляющим компаниям и ресурсоснабжающим организациям может дать возможность некоторым компаниям завысить стоимость приборов монтажа и ежегодного обслуживания».

Ресурсы отключат за долги

С россиян хотят начать взыскивать долги за услуги ЖКХ уже с сентября 2020-го. С таким предложением выступил глава думского комитета по энергетике Павел Завальный. Так, вместо января 2021-го мораторий на начисление штрафов за неуплату услуг могут отменить уже с осени. Запрет на взимание долгов ввели в апреле, и граждане успели накопить серьезные суммы. Если инициативу депутата поддержат, ресурсники смогут отключить неплательщикам, например, горячую воду.

Наталья Чернышева, директор «Организации народного контроля»:

«Мораторий на штрафы, пени и отключения за неуплату до 1 января 2021 года был правильной мерой, однако теперь, с повышением тарифов и возвратом взносов на капремонт, это может привести к еще большему откладыванию оплаты счетов и увеличению кассового разрыва в платежах. Сейчас нет единой методики подсчета задолженности по ЖКХ, поэтому цифры могут варьироваться, но можно предположить, что собираемость упадет во втором полугодии еще примерно на 20% по сравнению с периодом самоизоляции. Люди, потерявшие работу или существенную часть дохода, не смогут быстро восстановить прежние позиции. По некоторым прогнозам, количество безработных возрастет с нынешних 2,4 млн человек до 5 млн к концу 2020 года, а по пессимистичным прогнозам и до 7 млн человек. Сейчас гражданам можно порекомендовать как можно быстрее обращаться за субсидиями по ЖКХ вследствие падения уровня доходов, тем более что выплата субсидий не зависит от суммы имеющейся задолженности. А если не обращаться за субсидиями и надеяться на быстрое улучшение ситуации, можно к январю 2021 года оказаться в очень неприятной ситуации с огромной суммой долгов за 8–9 месяцев».

Невеселые прогнозы

Эксперты убеждены, что ситуация с падением доходов и безработицей будет только увеличивать задолженность на десятки миллиардов рублей. В среднем к концу года собираемость может понизиться примерно на 40–50%, и здесь очень важна была бы помощь от государства — как для ресурсников, чтобы компенсировать снижение получаемых ими платежей, так и массовые субсидии для граждан, которые помогли бы повысить собираемость коммунальных платежей. Например, если установить существенные субсидии в 50% для тех, у кого нет задолженности, то это могло бы стимулировать более раннюю оплату счетов по ЖКХ. Иначе из-за падения доходов и безработицы задолженность будет только расти.

Марк Гойхман, главный аналитик TeleTrade:

«Реальные доходы населения, учитывающие инфляцию, снижаются на 6% во 2-м квартале, еще до увеличения тарифов ЖКХ, по официальному прогнозу Минэкономразвития. В целом в 2020-м, по иронии цифр, предполагается уменьшение реальных располагаемых доходов на 3,8% — почти на столько же, на сколько подорожает «коммуналка». НИУ ВШЭ прогнозирует падение реальных доходов людей на 8,2–12,1% в этом году. Тарифы растут — доходы падают, что приведет к нагнетанию роста неплатежей населения за жилищно-коммунальные услуги. Еще на конец «допандемического» первого квартала 2020-го данная задолженность составляла 1,03 трлн рублей, по данным Минстроя. Это в 1,8 раза больше, чем уровень задолженности по итогам 1-го квартала прошлого года, составлявший 564,5 млрд рублей. Показателей за второй квартал пока нет. Однако можно смело предположить, что она выросла очень значительно. Во-первых, из-за того же резкого снижения доходов. Во-вторых, из-за совершенно необходимого действующего моратория на штрафы и пени за неуплату. В условиях, когда для многих семей остра проблема простого выживания, возможность не платить за ЖКУ без их отключения заставляет в значительной мере переориентировать средства людей на самое первостепенное — еду, лекарства, хозтовары. Но такая ситуация — временная, действующая до 1 января 2021 года, когда будет прекращен запрет на начисление пени. Но ведь долги только накапливаются из-за указанных обстоятельств. С учетом роста тарифов можно предположить увеличение задолженности на 600–700 млрд рублей за 9 месяцев, то есть до 1,6–1,7 трлн рублей уже к концу этого года. Сумма, совершенно неподъемная к уплате. Тем более что существенного роста доходов с нового года не предвидится. Ситуация с задолженностью может сложиться аховая. Если не будет введения каких-либо рассрочек, то судебные взыскания способны привести к массовым банкротствам физических лиц, потерям имущества, дальнейшему резкому ухудшению материального положения людей».

Источник: mk.ru

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